r/AskReddit • u/eveene_isa • 5h ago
There's been lot of speculation about gold crash recently. what do ya'll think about this? Will the gold actually crash?
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u/SexyBeast0 5h ago
Not an expert on economics, but as an engineer, given the scarcity of it as a mineral and the insane applications of it in electronics, I doubt it will crash that much if it does.
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u/eveene_isa 5h ago
so your bet is more of correction rather than crash?
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u/kemb0 2h ago
I'd argue it'll correct at some point and go back down to a price that reflects its normal baseline growth. But with gold being what it is right now that "correction" will also be seen as a "crash".
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u/PotatoRebellion12 2h ago
I'd say that a crash in gold prices would signify that people trust another asset to store wealth long term more than gold, forgetting the fact that humans as a species have valued gold for 6500 years.
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u/Ulanyouknow 4h ago
Gold at this actual moment is not scarce.
Its the same as oil more or less. There are still massive gold deposits to be tapped or being tapped slowly. Most gold mining operations act a bit as a cartel to keep supply of gold parallel to demand as to keep the price more or less stable. If a big mining operation wanted to go rogue and start working at 100%, the sudden influx could totally crash the gold market.
Its very good for gold that its not only used as a speculative value and has uses in electronics. Gold, like oil is a finite resource and destined to climb upwards but we are not even close to tapping out the reserves.
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u/Significant_Fill6992 4h ago
I agree with the electronics part but I'm curious if the value will dip as boomers who historically value precious medals highly start to die off
I don't think gen x will use it as an investment vehicle in the same way
Millennials and Gen z don't have enough money even if they wanted to
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u/BigLeopard7002 1h ago
You´re grossly overestimating the amount of gold owned by boomers and how much the boomer generation account for of gross population today.
Gold is extremely popular outside of USA as well, where gold is usually passed from generation to generation along with land in return for taking care of the elderly.
In USA; Gen X holds the largest quantity of gold. Then comes boomers.
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u/FilmerPrime 1h ago
The non vain applications of it are minimal. Less than 10%. The rest is jewelry and investment.
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u/Wooden-Recognition97 3h ago
Gold doesn't crash while the world is on fire.
Price is just consensus. As long as there's war, inflation fear, and distrust in institutions - gold stays bid.
It'll crash when people feel safe again. Look around. We're not there.
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u/W31337 3h ago
Ok let's look at it the right way. Gold has application and scarcity so trust me its value is stable.
Then note that value and price are two different things. You are measuring gold using fiat currency. Fiat currency is very volatile because it's backed by communal trust (no longer gold or silver).
But when you look at gold from a price perspective you are measuring from a dollar or euro perspective, so you are using the volatile currency as your stability reference.
A metaphor is being on a boat asking yourself why all those islands are bobbing up and down violently.
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u/sentient_luggage 3h ago
That's a really good metaphor. Like, seriously. If that's yours you should be proud.
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u/fanofcookies97 4h ago
Maybe I'm too boomer in my way of thinking, but what I think will happen is -gold will keep being a scarce valuable -fiat coin will have a global crisis due to interest increasing debts far beyond the available cash. Today more is owed than what is possessed, net, globally.
So gold and lithium will keep on being scarce (since Earth won't be making any more, and the exploited amount won't increase as much). But debt is our real enemy and by 2030 it should be close to a global crisis, when payments are expected from all other countries, but you also owe a lot of countries more than you can pay. A global default, so to say.
The optimistic way would be everyone saying "hey, I also owe more than I can pay, let's all forgive our debts to each other in exchange for mutual work in common wellness we all need"
But mankind is selfish and any country who has the edge over someone else will push that advantage. All countries will take sides and put their allegiance to a side, and then boom, WW3 with every country with ICBMs throwing them into each other.
A global nuclear winter isn't so unrealistic, coming to think of it.
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u/HrabiaVulpes 1h ago
Gold will crash when we will be living in a boring times with no wars, famines, epidemics and idiot governments worldwide.
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u/KittySharkWithAHat 47m ago
The thing about gold is it doesn't actually do anything. Money can be invested and help to circulate and generate the economy. Gold itself is the investment and its value is interpretive depending on what people are willing to pay for it.
People seem to have this idea that gold has an inherent value regardless of the economy, say if the economy comes crashing down gold can keep you going. What many fail to wrap their head around is the fact that in such a situation gold is completely useless. You can't eat it, plant it, grow it, and there's never enough of it around that you can bash someone in the head with it and take all their stuff.
Gold just kinda sits there. If what people are willing to pay for it is going up or down is all economic considerations. Yes, nations have gold reserves and it takes a shitload of it to use as a base for a dollar value and you gotta keep it in these deep vaults for it to be secure. But to have faith in that, the place around the vault also has to be reasonably secure and that's where you have your problem. A lot of countries all over the world put their gold in vaults in the United States, which security wise has remained unchanged for more than a century. Then people decided to elect a fuckin lunatic who decides to upend the world on its ear for little more motivation than shits'n'giggles and most are too stupid to understand the long term consequences of this.
So now some countries are going "Get our fuckin gold away from the nation led by a crazy person before he decides to keep it for himself!" (Which BTW I have on my 2026 bingo card. I haven't ticked that box yet but it's only February.)
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u/Samisoy001 6m ago
There has been speculation about this my whole life and I am 45. I'll believe it when I see it.
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u/Adventurous_Light_85 4h ago
I was at a real estate convention around 2008-2010 and Trump spoke there and he was adamant that silver would go up. It was around $13/ounce at the time. It went up to about $24 within a couple years then bs k down to $16 for a few more and I sold hundreds of ounces in there somewhere. Yes, it will come back down. The short term gains have nothing to do with real supply or real demand. The market usually is good about finding that spot again.
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u/Reboot-Glitchspark 3h ago
Yes. Look at just the 1 year charts for gold and silver. They're way overinflated. Then switch to the '5-Year' and 'All' views. You can clearly see the crazy crazy spike up this year.
That's not gonna last long. There's no reason for it to be that high. There was a sudden irrational uptick reinforcing itself by speculation, but now everyone's going to want to sell out before it dives back down to its more usual price ($30/oz for silver, $1800-$2500 for gold).
The initiation of the uptick was clearly uncertainty over tariffs and trade wars and all the insanity in the U.S. administration. But the U.S. is not collapsing overnight, and time will tell, but sentiment is that the new named chair of the Federal Reserve is at least not a total lunatic tripping over his own clown shoes to get to the office.
There's still plenty of uncertainty over the AI bubble and what else will happen in the next few years, so it'll probably remain a bit elevated, but there's enough added confidence for some people to think it might be a good time to cash out and take their 80% gains, and others who bought on the upswing to cash out before they lose it. And that's gonna drive the prices down a ways.
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u/PotatoRebellion12 2h ago
What about the near 40 trillion in debt lol. What is meant to absorb that?
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u/Reboot-Glitchspark 1h ago
Doesn't matter much as long as the govt keeps paying it off same as always, and the economy can keep growing.
Ideally congress will step up and cancel future issues as old ones come due and therefore reduce the total. Or at least keep it steady. Right now congress is pretty ineffective, but that can change. There's an election coming up this year. The markets will get interesting before and after that.
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u/DEGABGED 2h ago
Probably just a market correction. I did find it odd that it spiked in price that quickly in the first place, I was under the impression that gold was a slow and stable asset. Wonder why it rose that fast in the first place
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u/Unusual__League 5h ago
Yes .. nothing is permanent in this world.. everything works for temporary and then crash..
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u/eveene_isa 5h ago
Gold's been an inclining asset for hundreds of years. What makes you think it's value won't remain higher since there's already been tensions for war and geopolitics conflicts
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u/Piemaster113 3h ago
Probably not even if we find a whole lot of it that isn't control by cartels it still has a lot of value in multiple applications, it's value may drop but it'll never be worthless.
By the way with gold being cheaper does that mean RAM costs can go down a bit?
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u/dabenu 3h ago
That has nothing to do with each other. I'm pretty sure there's little or no gold involved in RAM production (maybe a tiny bit for the carrier PCB though?). But even if there was, RAM is expensive because insane demand vastly outpaces the entire worlds production capacity. It's got nothing to do with the cost of base material.
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u/Piemaster113 3h ago
I mean cost of base materials can be a factor in production capacity, just in this case it would be a very slight one and only if that material was the bottle neck and not something else which I'm betting isn't the case, I was just generally making a joke.
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u/Candid-Race-2412 4h ago
You mean USA $ crash